Mumbai: India, Asia’s third largest
economy, saw urban consumers spend less in calendar year 2012 due to high
inflation, muted salary hikes, and slowing economic growth that affected both
real wages and sentiment.
Yet, the fast moving consumer goods index (the
BSE FMCG index) was the third biggest gainer among sectoral indices on BSE,
surging 47%, while ITC Ltd figured among the top 10 best-performing stocks,
rising 43.64% in the period.
Compared with other sectors, the consumption
story remains intact, though the pace of growth has slowed compared with
previous years.
Consumer spending reached an eight-year low in
the September quarter of fiscal 2013 (FY13). Private final consumption
expenditure (PFCE), an official estimate of consumer spending, slowed to 3.68%,
according to India Ratings, a part of the Fitch Group. That’s not an isolated
number—in the last six quarters, four recorded the lowest PFCE growth rate seen
in the last 34 quarters, India Ratings said in its January report.
“This time, the slowdown in consumption
spending is visible in some categories in the higher SECs (socio-economic
classifications) of urban India,” analysts Anand Mour and Gagan Borana said in
an ICICI Securities Ltd December report.
The trends seen in 2012 are likely to
accelerate in 2013. Growth will come from rural dwellers who are expected to see
a rise in disposable incomes due to the direct cash transfer scheme, while urban
consumers will continue to be affected by the macroeconomic environment,
analysts said.
“Our analysis of the impact of government
spending on consumption suggests that consumption at the bottom of the income
pyramid is likely to stay strong,” said analysts Neelkanth Mishra and Ravi
Shankar in a 7 January report titled India Market Strategy by Credit
Suisse Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. “The squeeze of the urban middle-class, on
the other hand, is likely to continue.”
Muted salary increases will also add to the
pressure on urban consumption, it said.
Besides that, food inflation remains persistent, forcing consumers to
spend more. “Food inflation, which had declined to 6.6% in October, has
re-entered the double-digit zone after four months,” said a January report by
Crisil Ltd.
Yet, there are bright spots, with analysts
expecting consumer companies to continue seeing growth from shoppers buying
branded goods for the first time, and by sales, discounts and promotions.
Experts expect five trends to dominate in 2013: rural and new consumer segments,
sales and discounts, new launches and expansion, emerging segments and trade
channels, and premiumization.
Rural and new consumer segments
The consumer packaged goods market growth will
be aided by a rise in government final consumption expenditure (GFCE), as was
witnessed two years before the general election in 2009, and the likely roll-out
of policies such as the food security Bill and the direct cash transfer of
subsidies to about 40% households in India, said analysts.
In the two years preceding the 2009 general
election, the consumer packaged goods market grew in excess of 1.4 times the
nominal GDP (gross domestic product) growth, while GFCE grew at over 18%,
exceeding the nominal GDP growth during the period. Spending by the rural
development ministry doubled in FY09 to Rs.56,900 crore owing to government
spending.
“Already in the first half of fiscal 2013,
GFCE has grown by 19%, compared to about 14% growth in the past 18 months,” said
the
ICICI
Securities December report cited earlier.
Growth will also be driven by new segments
such as urban India’s poorest households earning less than
Rs.6,000 per month and low-income value seekers
visiting modern trade outlets for the first time. These two segments will add
around $3 billion (around
Rs.16,000 crore today) to the consumer packaged
goods sector by 2015, said a November report by market research firm
Nielsen Co.
If we look at the just concluded festive season
for a glimpse of what to expect in 2013, there will be an increase in the
frequency of promotions and discounts. Retailers from food and groceries,
electronics, home furnishings, and apparel and lifestyle are likely to increase
the number of promotions and sales that they run in a bid to lure consumers
shying away from buying.
“Sales in 2013 would be driven by discounts, a
trend that was largely prevalent in 2012,” said
Govind Shrikhande,
managing director of
Shoppers Stop
Ltd, which runs India’s oldest department store retail chain.
“About 40% of the overall sales come from
discounts. On an average, this will further increase by 4-5% this year as
discounts increase,” said
Dipak Agarwal, chief
executive officer of
DLF Brands Ltd, which
retails apparel and footwear brands such as
Mango and Boggi.
The year will see the advent of “value
trading” as one of the biggest drivers of growth, said
Ritesh Chandra, executive
director and head (consumer group) at
Avendus Capital Pvt. Ltd, adding
that retailers and manufacturers will work together and give conjoint offers
rather than mere discounts.
Sunil Kataria, executive
vice-president (marketing and sales) at
Godrej Consumer Products
Ltd, the maker of
Cinthol soaps and
Hit insecticides,
agreed with the above view. He added that cooling of commodity prices would aid
a larger incidence of consumer promotions across categories.
Expansion and new launches
The year will see consumer companies increase
their reach into the interiors of India. Firms will also launch more products
and widen their portfolio as they get into new segments and categories,
according to
Abheek Singhi, leader of
the consumer practice and India partner at
Boston Consulting
Group (
BCG).
For instance, Procter and Gamble has a
presence in 14 categories in India that include detergents such as
Tide,
Ariel and shampoos
such as
Head &
Shoulders. Its Cincinnati-based parent has products in 24 categories.
In the coming years, the company plans to introduce its entire portfolio, with
the exception of toilet paper, in India,
Shantanu Khosla, managing
director of
P&G India, had said in a
September interview.
Besides, consumer and retail companies are
also expanding into new geographies and categories.
Hindustan Unilever
Ltd (
HUL) recently launched
Dove hair oil—a
segment hitherto dominated by companies such as
Marico Ltd, known for
Parachute
hair oil, and
Dabur India Ltd that
sells
Vatika.
The India opportunity is also attracting
global quick-service restaurant chains, besides apparel and footwear retailers.
In December, the UK-based casual dining chain
PizzaExpress launched its
first store in India. Earlier this month, the US-based
Krispy Kreme opened its
first store in Bangalore. DLF recently signed a joint venture with the US-based
fashion brand
Forever21 and will launch its
first store in April this year.
Even regional brands across categories such as
Turtle in
men’s wear,
Khadim’s in footwear and
others will continue to invest to take their brands pan-India after having
established themselves in regional markets, said
Santosh Verma, director
(investment banking) at
IDFC Capital Ltd.
Emerging segments and trade channels
Growth will come from the fringes—categories
that are not among the mainstays—such as oats, conditioners, liquid fabric
conditioners, and liquid soaps and face wash compared with staple soaps and
deodorants.
Five categories that have witnessed the
highest growth in their contribution between calendar year 1999 and calendar
year 2010 are biscuits, refined edible oils, salted and savoury snacks, mosquito
repellents and skin creams. “We note that these categories witnessed increase in
penetration, consumer shift from loose to packaged products or unbranded to
branded products,” said the ICICI Securities report cited earlier.
It identified the five categories that
witnessed the maximum drop in their contribution as toilet soaps, packaged tea,
detergent cakes and bars, toothpaste and confectionery (toffee and hard boiled
candy).
Channels including modern trade (comprising
hypermarkets and supermarkets) account for 5-7% of the overall retail market and
are expected to double to 10-12% in the next three years, according to a
Mint estimate based on forecasts from BCG,
Ernst and Young Pvt.
Ltd,
Deloitte Haskins and Sells,
KPMG
Advisory Services Pvt. Ltd,
Technopak Advisors Pvt. Ltd
and
Booz and Co.
Modern trade growth will come with new
consumers accessing such stores for the first time, existing consumers buying
more and retailers opening new outlets.
Shoppers Stop opened 13 new stores in FY12.
The retailer targets to have 75 stores by the end of FY15. Pantaloon Retail
added 41 stores and
Trent Ltd, the retail arm of
the
Tata group
that runs the
Westside department store chain
and
Star
Bazaar hypermarket chain, opened seven stores in the year.
“Retailers will continue to open new stores in
tier II and tier III cities as metros get saturated,” said an India Ratings
January report.
Likewise, e-commerce, which accounts for close
to 1% of the overall retail market, will also drive growth. “E-commerce, which,
till a few years back, was predominantly a medium for information, has graduated
to being a medium for buying.
The e-commerce market in 2012 has grown
45-50%. This is an important trend and can have significant impact on the way
consumers buy and organized retail evolves in the country,” said
Mohit Bahl,
partner at KPMG India.
The fundamentals of an online ecosystem are
already in place, said
Harminder Sahni, managing
director at consultancy Wazir Advisors, adding that growth in 2013 will come
from the availability of many more categories online. “Online will move upwards
in terms of price range as well as customer segments in terms of higher age and
higher income,” said Sahni.
With changing lifestyles, consumers’ focus on
health and wellness will also see emerging categories such as nutraceuticals,
health food and health services doing well. Sales of olive oil, for instance,
exceed that of
Saffola, a premium cooking oil
from Marico, at grocery retail chain
Big Bazaar.
Oats, which didn’t exist as a category until
three years ago, are now a
Rs.200 crore market. The high growth has persuaded
companies such as HUL and
Nestlé India Ltd
to launch oats under their
Knorr and
Maggi brands, respectively, said a
January 2013 report by
Edelweiss Securities Ltd.
Premiumization
Despite the slowdown, consumers are willing to
buy premium goods, unlike previous slowdowns that saw consumers down trade or
buy cheaper products. “Researches indicate consumers are willing to adopt a new
premium category, even at a higher price, in the space of convenience, health
and wellness,” said the ICICI Securities report cited above.
The sale of products perceived as being
healthier— wheat cornflakes and muesli, baked and non-fried potato chips and
snacks, and diet beverages, 100% juices and organic or green tea—are rising,
said
Gaurav
Gupta, senior director at
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt.
Ltd. He added that the sale of organic products was also rising.
To be sure, in the last two years, consumers
are increasingly opting for more and more premium products. “This has led
companies like HUL, P&G,
Kraft/
Cadbury to launch more and more
premium products at higher price points as there is an increasing demand amongst
consumers for such products,” said the Edelweiss report.
“The growth of the premium segment is being
driven by income levels improving and more choices available today,” said
Sunil
Taldar, director (sales and international business) at
Cadbury India
Ltd, which has seen success with pricier products such as Silk and
Bournville, and recently
launched
Toblerone from its parent’s
portfolio.